NetherlandsPublic sector2015–2026Netherlands Police
Crime Anticipation System predictive policing
Netherlands Police stopped CAS after an internal review found limited predictive value
Problem
The police wanted to anticipate crime hotspots and direct patrol resources before incidents occurred.
Approach
CAS began in Amsterdam in 2015 and expanded nationally. It combined police records with socioeconomic data to recommend patrol locations and time windows. A September 2025 internal review found that it correctly predicted only 1 in 50 Amsterdam incidents. Police subsequently stopped using it and acknowledged that they could not demonstrate fewer burglaries from its use.
Results
Takeaway
National deployment continued for years before the police established whether the system reduced crime.
Categories
- Size
- Large enterprise
- Industry
- Public sector
- Business function
- Production and quality
- Innovation type
- Process innovation
- AI technology
- Predictive analytics and ML
- Adoption
- Built in-house
- Evidence
- Company's own claim
Sources
Source summaries
AlgorithmWatch reported an internal finding that CAS correctly predicted 1 in 50 Amsterdam incidents. It reported discontinuation around the turn of 2025 to 2026 and quoted police acknowledging that reduced burglaries could not be demonstrated.
Full details are in the original sources.
