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United StatesPublic sector2012–2019

Chicago Police Department

Strategic Subject List and Crime and Victimization Risk Model

Chicago police retired shooting-risk models that an audit found unreliable for operational use

StoppedRegulator, audit or court

Problem

Chicago police wanted to identify people likely to become shooting victims or offenders and target violence-prevention interventions.

Approach

From 2012, the department used models developed with the Illinois Institute of Technology to assign individual risk scores and tiers. The inspector general found outdated data, inadequate training, weak access controls and no sustainable operating plan. The department decommissioned the program on November 1, 2019, before the inspector general published its advisory.

Results

$3.8 millionfederal grants received to develop the predictive modelsRegulator, audit or court[1]

Takeaway

The department deployed individual risk scores without maintaining the data, training and access controls needed to interpret and use them consistently.

Categories

Business function
Production and quality
Innovation type
Process innovation
Evidence
Regulator, audit or court

Sources

  1. Advisory Concerning the Chicago Police Department's Predictive Risk Models
    Chicago Office of Inspector General23 Jan 2020Regulator, audit or court document
  2. City of Chicago - Strategic Subject List - Historical
    City of Chicago1 May 2017Government publication

Source summaries

[1]Chicago Office of Inspector General23 Jan 2020

The advisory documented unreliable operational scores, outdated training, uncontrolled access and weaknesses in evaluation and maintenance. It recorded the program's 2012 start, $3.8 million in grants and November 2019 decommissioning.

[2]City of Chicago1 May 2017

The historical dataset confirmed that the program ended in 2019. It described the algorithm's purpose as estimating involvement in a shooting, either as a victim or offender.

Full details are in the original sources.

Added 4 Nov 2026 · Updated 4 Nov 2026
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