United StatesPublic sector2021 – ongoingNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National rip-current probability forecasting
NOAA deployed hourly rip-current forecasts up to 6 days ahead
Problem
Forecasters had manually assessed rip-current risk over broad coastal areas. Their forecasts typically extended only 1 or 2 days ahead.
Approach
NOAA's National Ocean Service and National Weather Service developed and deployed a national probability model. Logistic regression used wave and water-level data to estimate hazardous rip-current risk. The system produced hourly guidance through the Nearshore Wave Prediction System.
Results
Takeaway
The deployment extended forecast frequency and lead time. NOAA did not quantify a reduction in drownings attributable to the model.
Categories
- Size
- Large enterprise
- Industry
- Public sector
- Business function
- Production and quality
- Innovation type
- Product and service innovation
- AI technology
- Predictive analytics and ML
- Adoption
- Built in-house
- Goal
- Quality and risk
- Evidence
- Company's own claim
Sources
Source summaries
NOAA described its deployed logistic-regression model for hazardous rip currents. It reported hourly predictions extending up to 6 days ahead.
NOAA announced the national model's launch and described its coastal coverage. It contrasted the new guidance with earlier manual forecasts issued twice daily.
Full details are in the original sources.